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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Hurricane Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions could support some gradual development of this system, 
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or 
over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the 
Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue 
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of 
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form during the next day or two while it moves slowly 
westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Bucci