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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions could support some gradual development of this system, 
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or 
this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of 
Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to 
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in 
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, 
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next 
day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Papin/Mora