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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Kirk, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The National 
Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression 
Joyce, whose remnants are located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next 
several days while it moves generally northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. 
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms show some signs of organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is very likely to form during the next few days 
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Pasch