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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores, and 
on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low 
pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo 
Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday. 
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
early or middle part of this week while the system initially moves 
westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea 
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a 
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week 
while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This 
system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of 
Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should 
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is 
currently producing limited shower activity.  Some gradual 
development of this system is possible during the next several days 
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the 
eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake/Mahoney