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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Isaac, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores, 
and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic 
Ocean.  The Weather Prediction Center has issued the last advisory 
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene, located inland over the Ohio River 
Valley.

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next 
week while the system moves toward the west and then northwest 
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western 
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week.  
This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of 
Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should 
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik