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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a 
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical 
depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few 
days while the system moves northward across the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless 
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains 
over portions of Central America during the next several days. 
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this 
feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally 
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the 
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa.  
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle 
to latter part of the week while it moves westward to 
west-northwestward across the eastern and  central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Kelly