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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in association with an 
area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of 
Bermuda. Development of this system is not expected due to dry air 
and increasing upper-level winds during the next couple of days 
while the low moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a 
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression 
or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while 
moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of 
Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to 
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next 
several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the 
progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to 
move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests 
along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor 
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move 
westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions 
could support some gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of 
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart