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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has not 
become better organized since yesterday. Although the low remains 
embedded in a very dry environment, a short-lived tropical 
depression cannot be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become 
better organized while the system moves generally northward at 5 to 
10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western 
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a 
very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next 
several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the 
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of 
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over 
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move 
westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions 
could support some gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of 
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart