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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of 
Bermuda continues to produce showers and thunderstorms north of its 
center.  Although environmental conditions are not very favorable 
for development, a short-lived tropical depression can not be ruled 
out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the 
system moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph over the central 
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few 
days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions 
of Central America.  Thereafter, gradual development of this system 
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the 
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week.  Regardless of 
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over 
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of 
Africa over the next few days.  Gradual development of this 
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form 
during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves 
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Kelly