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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
945 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Outlook issued to update the system in the eastern Tropical 
Atlantic west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands (AL93).

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Francine, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a couple hundred 
miles off the coast of Louisiana. 

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Updated: Recent satellite-wind data indicates that the system 
located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, 
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, 
and if these trends continue, advisories will be issued on a 
tropical depression later this morning. The system is moving to the 
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph and will be moving into the central 
Tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): 
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical 
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions appear marginally 
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two 
while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central 
tropical Atlantic.  The disturbance is expected to reach an area of 
stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances 
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing an 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry 
air near the system is expected to limit additional development over 
the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even 
less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly 
west-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

4. Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along 
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern 
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development 
is possible during the early part of next week as the system 
meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Papin/Blake