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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished tonight in 
association with a broad area of low pressure and a nearby weak 
front over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are 
expected to remain unfavorable for significant development of this 
system while it meanders over the northwestern Gulf and eventually 
merges with an approaching frontal system later today or on 
Saturday. Although tropical cyclone development is unlikely, heavy 
rainfall is expected to continue across portions of the northern 
Gulf Coast during the next day or so. Additional information on this 
system can be found in products issued by your local National 
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by 
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization with a 
gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few hundred 
miles east of North Carolina, and recent satellite wind data 
indicate a front extends into the low. This system could briefly 
acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next day or so 
while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of 
the northeastern United States. The low is expected to move over 
cooler waters by early Saturday, and thereafter further development 
is not expected. Additional information on this system, including 
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Development is 
not expected before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan 
Peninsula later today. Some slow development is possible later this 
weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. 
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part 
of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or 
northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online 
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart