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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east 
of North Carolina is producing limited shower and thunderstorm 
activity well to the east of its center. This system could acquire 
some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days or so 
while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of 
the northeastern United States. Once the low moves over cooler 
waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development is not 
expected. Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow 
development of this system is possible during the next several days 
while it drifts northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph over the 
western Caribbean Sea continues to produce a broad area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development is possible 
in a few days after the system crosses the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico and moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

4. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the 
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development 
of this system during the next few days while it moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week, 
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow 
development while the system moves northwestward over the 
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online 
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart