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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad and weak area of low pressure just offshore of the middle 
Texas coast continues to produce some disorganized shower activity 
along portions of the coast of Texas and over the adjacent waters of 
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to meander 
for another day or so, and some slow development is possible if it 
remains offshore.  On Tuesday, the low is forecast to move inland, 
and further development is not expected.  Regardless, heavy rains 
could cause some flash flooding across portions of the Texas coast 
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized thunderstorms and gusty 
winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and over 
the adjacent eastern Caribbean waters.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become more conducive for development when the system 
reaches the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico 
late this week and over the weekend, and a tropical depression could 
form during that time.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave just offshore of the west coast of Africa is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days 
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward or 
northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.  This system 
could produce areas of heavy rain and gusty winds across portions of 
the Cabo Verde Islands in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi