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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure just offshore of the upper Texas coast 
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana and over the 
adjacent waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  This system is 
expected to meander near the coast for the next couple of days, and 
some slow development is possible if it remains offshore. By 
Tuesday, the system is forecast to move inland, and further 
development is not expected.  Regardless, heavy rains could cause 
some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and the 
upper Texas coast during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in 
association with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred 
miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  The disturbance is expected to 
move westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then 
cross the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development 
while the system moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea 
during the middle and latter parts of the week, and a tropical 
depression could form during that time.  Regardless of development, 
this system could cause gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over 
portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave is forecast to move offshore of the west coast of 
Africa by Monday.  Thereafter, environmental conditions could 
support some slow development of this system throughout the week 
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the 
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Pasch