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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure just offshore of the upper Texas coast 
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana and over the 
adjacent waters of the northwestern Gulf. This system is expected to 
meander near the coast for the next couple of days, and some slow 
development is possible if it remains offshore. By Tuesday, the 
system is forecast to move inland, and further development is not 
expected. Regardless, heavy rains could cause some flash flooding 
across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast 
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several 
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed little in 
organization since yesterday. The disturbance is expected to move 
westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then cross the 
eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become more conducive for development while the system 
moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea during the middle 
and latter parts of the week, and a tropical depression could form 
during that time. Regardless of development, this system could 
result in some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions 
of the Lesser Antilles on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move offshore by 
Monday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some 
slow development of this system throughout the week while it moves 
slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart