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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the 
southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the adjacent waters of the 
southwestern Atlantic.  The wave is expected to move near or over 
Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida 
tonight or Saturday.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of 
Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.  
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of 
Florida later today.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash 
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, 
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the 
progress of this system.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi