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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Virgin 
Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of 
the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. 
Development of this system is unlikely during the next couple of 
days while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater 
Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more 
conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater 
Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early 
next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern 
Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida. Interests 
across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida should continue to 
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart