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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea 
associated with a tropical wave continues to produce widespread 
shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system is not 
expected today while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph, 
and an Air Force reconnaissance mission planned for today has been 
canceled. The disturbance is then expected to move westward over the 
Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday 
or early Sunday, at which point some development will be possible. 
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the 
tropical wave will affect portions of Central America and Mexico 
through the weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined.  Showers and 
thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization, and a tropical 
depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or on 
Saturday. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph 
and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend. 
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system.  For 
more information, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave centered several hundred miles south-southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible 
next week while it moves generally westward across the central 
and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky