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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
510 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A special tropical weather outlook issued to update the 
discussion of the low pressure system northeast of the Bahamas.

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico. 

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92) Updated:
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates 
that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles 
northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined 
surface circulation.  Environmental conditions remain marginally 
conducive for further development and this system could become a 
tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 
15 mph.  The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast 
of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday.  Another Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Friday morning, if 
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern 
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this 
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical 
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this 
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Bucci