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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles 
east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low 
pressure interacting with an upper-level trough. Environmental 
conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development of 
this system during the next few days while it moves westward or 
west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of 
the southeastern United States by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system 
through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward or 
northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Papin