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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America, 
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico.  A broad 
area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual 
development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm 
is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast. 

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are 
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and 
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash 
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over 
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the 
middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued 
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on 
those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few 
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas in a couple of days. 
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of 
this system thereafter while it moves westward or west- 
northwestward.  The system is forecast to approach the coast of the 
southeast United States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Brown