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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America, 
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is 
forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico on Monday or Tuesday.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a 
tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while 
it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are 
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and 
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash 
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over 
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the 
middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued 
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these 
is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek 
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Environmental 
conditions could be conducive for some development of this system 
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven