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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather has formed over Central 
America, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters 
of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is 
forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward.  Regardless of development, several days of 
heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and 
Central America.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening 
flooding and flash flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a few 
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas.  Environmental 
conditions could be conducive for some development of this system 
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Beven