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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.

1. Eastern Caribbean Sea:
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft mission this morning indicate that the 
broad area of low pressure located over the far southeastern 
Caribbean Sea does not have a well-defined center.  Although the 
system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over 
the southern Windward Islands and adjacent waters, satellite and 
radar imagery from Barbados show that it is not well organized.  
The system is forecast to move generally westward near the northern 
coast of South America, and interaction with land is likely to 
hinder significant development during the next day or so.  After 
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become more 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form within the next two to three days when the system is over the 
south-central Caribbean Sea.  

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, 
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of 
the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the 
ABC Islands during the next day or two.  Interests in those 
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue 
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be 
found on the National Hurricane Center website at

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under 
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under 
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Brown

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