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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the 
southeastern Bahamas.  Development of this system, if any, would be 
slow to occur during the next couple of days due to unfavorable 
environmental conditions while the disturbance initially drifts 
northward, then accelerates eastward by Thursday.  By the end of the 
week, further development is unlikely as the disturbance is expected 
to interact with a frontal system.  Regardless, locally heavy 
rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and 
Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

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