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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles 
southwest of Newfoundland, Canada. 

1. The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface 
trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these 
features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and 
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the 
Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday 
before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of 
Mexico coast.  Regardless of development, this disturbance is 
expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America 
and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash 
flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely 
reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas 
and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant 
rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and 
urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A strong tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions appear generally conducive for additional development 
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or 
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far 
eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.  Interests in the Cabo 
Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Papin




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