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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms over much of Cuba, the central and northwestern 
Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean 
waters.  Gradual development of this system is possible while it 
moves west-northwestward during the next few days.  This system is 
expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late 
today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on 
Thursday and Friday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become a little better 
organized in association with a low pressure system located about 
midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next 
couple of days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over 
the tropical Atlantic.  By the weekend, however, less favorable 
conditions should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. A weak trough of low pressure has moved inland along the central and 
upper Texas coasts.  Although further weakening of this system is 
expected, isolated heavy rainfall could still occur over portions of 
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana during the next day or 
two.  These rains could result in localized flash flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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