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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland,

1. A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
is moving slowly west-northwestward. Showers and thunderstorms are
showing some signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during
the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to
northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds
should prevent any further development by midweek.  This system is
forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are
associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over
north-central Honduras. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across Honduras, southern Belize, and northern
Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the
next couple of days.  By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to
emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could
become a little more conducive for some organization to occur.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.  While
thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level
winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of
this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at
around 15 mph.  By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward
Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for
any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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