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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles southeast of the
New England coast.

1. Surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure is
forming over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.  The system is forecast
to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some
development is possible if the low moves over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.
Regardless of development, this system could bring heavy rains to
portions of Central America late this weekend through early next
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday.  Although
tropical cyclone formation in this area is climatologically unlikely
this late in the hurricane season, some development of the system
is still possible before conditions become unfavorable by the middle
of next week.  The system is expected move westward to northwestward
toward the Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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