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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the western
Azores.

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although surface pressures are low across the area, the circulation
is currently weak. Any development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur while it moves to the west-northwest near the Yucatan
peninsula in a couple of days, and over the southern Gulf of Mexico
by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend from the
southeastern Bahamas northeastward across the western Atlantic for
several hundred miles are associated with a surface trough.
Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it
moves to the northeast or north at 5 to 10 mph, remaining well to
south of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart




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