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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, located more than 100 miles north of the
northwestern Bahamas.

1. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
tropical Atlantic. Shower activity remains disorganized and only
slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day or two.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for gradual development through the middle of the week,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough.  Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday, and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart




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