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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, located over the far north
Atlantic Ocean.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters has
increased since yesterday. Limited development of this disturbance
is expected during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development when
the system moves over the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico
late this week and this weekend. Regardless of development, this
disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across
the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and
continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave located
about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although some slight
development of this system is possible today or Wednesday, by
Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation.  This disturbance is expected to move
slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Hamrick/Blake




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