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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located about 100 miles east of the coast of northeast
Florida, on Tropical Storm Fernand, located a short distance east of
the coast of northeastern Mexico, and on newly formed Tropical Storm
Gabrielle, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. A small area of low pressure, located just east of Bermuda, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some development
of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could
form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves
northeastward away from Bermuda.  Afterward, upper-level winds are
forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge later today over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic west of Africa.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become mostly conducive for development late this
week, and this system has the potential to become a tropical
depression over the weekend or early next week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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