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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Kirk, located well south
of the Cabo Verde Islands.
1. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of
Bermuda is now producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit
development for the next day or so, but conditions could become more
conducive for some development of this system by early next week
while it moves westward and west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are
likely to increase again, which would limit additional development
as the system turns northward and moves closer to the southeastern
coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. A frontal non-tropical low pressure system is located about 1000
miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to
become conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so, and a subtropical or
tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the low
meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. For more information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.