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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on recently
upgraded Hurricane Helene, located southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands, and on Tropical Storm Isaac, located over the central
tropical Atlantic.

1. The combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Honduras.
The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
Yucatan peninsula during the next couple of days, with little or no
development expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and land
interaction.  However, upper-level winds are forecast to become a
little more conducive for development when the system moves across
the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form in the
northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Azores in two or three days.  Some slow tropical or subtropical
development is possible by the end of the week while the low
moves southwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart




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