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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather centered a couple of hundred miles
north of the northern Leeward Islands has become a little better
organized since yesterday, but there are no indications of a closed
circulation. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable
for development by the weekend, but dry air aloft could limit
additional development of the thunderstorm activity. This makes
the overall environment only marginally conducive for tropical
cyclone formation. The disturbance is expected to move northwestward
today, then northward over the weekend across the western Atlantic
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A weak and elongated area of low pressure just off the east coast
of Florida is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extending from southern Florida northeastward across the
southwestern Atlantic. Upper-level winds are not favorable for
development but this system could still produce locally heavy rains
to portions of the Florida peninsula as it moves northward during
the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

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