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NHC Graphical Outlook Archive

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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

200 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is located about 500 miles west of the
Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with
this low has changed little in organization during the past few
hours. While tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated today,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more favorable for
development by later in the week while the low moves toward the
west-northwest and northwest at about 15 mph over the open Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak surface trough
interacting with an upper-level low. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be very slow to occur while it moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

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