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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

200 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
moving over the Leeward Islands remains limited and disorganized.
Interaction of the low with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will
likely inhibit significant development through tonight.  However,
environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for
development when the disturbance moves near or over the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend or by early next week.  Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected
across portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands today, and over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas
tonight and Saturday. Interests in those islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brown

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