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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP98):
A small area of low pressure has developed within a broader area of 
disturbed weather located several hundred miles offshore of the 
southwest coast of Mexico. First light visible satellite imagery and 
recent scatterometer imagery suggests a well-defined circulation is 
developing. In addition, convection continues to show signs of 
organization. If these trends continue, a tropical depression is 
likely to form as soon as this afternoon. The system is forecast to 
drift westward over the next day or so, then turn west-northwestward 
or northwestward thereafter, remaining over the open waters of the 
central to western part of the Eastern Pacific. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of of the Baja California Peninsula:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has not become any better organized 
in association with a small area of low pressure located a few 
hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Additional 
development of this system appears unlikely over the next day or two 
before it is absorbed by a larger area of disturbed weather (EP98) 
to its southwest. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
Another area of low pressure is expected to develop off the 
southwest coast of Mexico near the end of the week. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development 
of the system thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the 
early portion of next week as the system moves generally 
west-northwestward, near the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Papin