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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula 
is producing showers and thunderstorms displaced well to the west of 
the surface center.  Although the likelihood of further development 
is decreasing, the system could still become a short-lived tropical 
depression before it encounters increasingly hostile environmental 
conditions and cooler waters.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that an area of 
low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles south of the 
southern coast of Mexico.  The system is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends westward over 
the southwestern Mexico offshore waters.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form by early to mid-next week while it 
moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel 
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Roberts