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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Baja California Peninsula (Ex-Mario):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized with 
the the remnants of Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the 
Baja California Peninsula. Earlier satellite wind data also 
indicated the circulation had become better defined.  If the ongoing 
deep convection persists, Mario is likely to become a tropical 
cyclone again, and advisories may be re-initiated as soon as later 
this morning as the system moves slowly westward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of 
southern or southwestern Mexico early this week.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as 
the low tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low 
pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have decreased since 
yesterday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become less 
conducive for development during the next few days as the system 
moves westward around 10 mph, and the potential for tropical cyclone 
development appears to be decreasing.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema/Papin