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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
Earlier satellite-derived wind data showed a well-defined area of 
low pressure located located well to the west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula that was producing 
winds of up to 35-40 mph just west of the center. In addition, 
shower and thunderstorm activity has developed a little closer to 
the center this morning. If these convective trends continue, this 
system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm 
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development 
in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few 
hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a broad 
area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions appear generally 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well 
offshore of the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Papin