Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms 
associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico have become better 
organized this morning. If these trends continue, advisories will 
likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or 
tropical storm later today. Additional information on this system, 
including gale and storm warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of 
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a couple of days. Gradual 
development of the disturbance is expected, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend 
while the system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

Forecaster Kelly