Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a developing area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico continue to show signs of organization. 
Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression will 
likely form later today. The system is forecast to move 
west-northwestward today, then meander northwestward to 
north-northwestward through the end of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. South of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles 
south of the coast of Central America during the second half of this 
week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for 
gradual development of the low pressure system after it forms, and a 
tropical depression could develop late this week or over the weekend 
while the disturbance moves generally westward to west-northwestward 
at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky