Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in 
association with an area of low pressure located a couple hundred 
miles to the south of the southern coast of Mexico. In addition, 
recent satellite wind data indicate its circulation is also becoming 
better defined. If these trends continue, a tropical depression 
could form as soon as later this afternoon. The system is forecast 
to move generally westward near 15 mph over the next few days, 
moving farther away from the Mexican coast. Additional information 
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central East Pacific:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to 
produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The 
proximity of nearby dry air is likely to prevent significant 
development of this system while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph 
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form towards the end of this week a 
few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some 
gradual development of this system is possible by the weekend while 
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to 
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

Forecaster Papin