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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1155 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low 
pressure in the Western part of the East Pacific (EP95). 

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low 
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of 
the Baja California peninsula has a well-defined circulation and is 
producing winds up to 35 mph. Despite marginal environmental 
conditions, any improvement in the current convective organization 
could result formation of a tropical depression over the next day or 
two as the low meanders over open waters, then begins to move 
northeastward by late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the 
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well 
offshore of the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Papin/Roberts