000
ABNT30 KNHC 011134
TWSAT 
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...ONE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY DURING THE MONTH WAS BELOW AVERAGE.  IN A TYPICAL
OCTOBER...TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND ONE HURRICANE FORM.  IT IS
NOTABLE THAT THE OCTOBERS OF 2006 AND 2007 WERE THE QUIETEST
CONSECUTIVE OCTOBER PERIODS OBSERVED SINCE 1993 AND 1994.  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
FIRST SEEN TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ON 4 OCTOBER. 
THE AREA REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ON 8 OCTOBER.  THE LOW BEGAN TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ON 9 OCTOBER...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON 11 OCTOBER ABOUT 860 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.  STRONG
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED THE DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 905 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.  THE LOW
MOVED NORTHWESTWARD ON 13 OCTOBER...THEN TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND
MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON 14 OCTOBER.  IT BECAME AN
EXTRATROPICAL GALE ON 16 OCTOBER ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS.  THE LOW WAS ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATE THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE AZORES.

TROPICAL STORM NOEL...NOEL FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT DEPARTED
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ON 16 OCTOBER.  AS THIS WAVE APPROACHED
THE LESSER ANTILLES...IT BEGAN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO.  THIS INTERACTION LEAD TO THE 
FORMATION OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ON 23 OCTOBER...
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
AFTER FORMING...THE LOW MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
THAT INITIALLY INHIBITED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
DECREASED ON THE 27 OCTOBER.  THIS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 28 OCTOBER...ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF
PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.  THE DEPRESSION TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND
STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  THE MAXIMUM
WINDS INCREASED TO 60 MPH BEFORE NOEL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAITI EARLY ON 29 OCTOBER.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
NOEL BECAME DISRUPTED OVER HAITI AND THE CENTER REFORMED NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA A FEW HOURS LATER.  AFTER THE
CENTER REFORMED...NOEL TRACKED WESTWARD AND MADE ANOTHER LANDFALL
IN EASTERN CUBA EARLY ON 30 OCTOBER.  NOEL SPENT A LITTLE MORE THAN
24 HOURS OVER EASTERN CUBA BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON 31 OCTOBER.  AT THE MONTH'S END NOEL WAS CENTERED BETWEEN
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU. 

PRELIMINARY MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NOEL
PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI THAT HAVE RESULTED IN LOSS OF LIVES OF ABOUT 80
PEOPLE.  

SUMMARY TABLE 

NAME               DATES        MAX WIND    DEATHS    U.S. DAMAGE
                                  MPH                  $MILLION
---------------------------------------------------------------
TD FIFTEEN      11-12 OCTOBER      30
TS NOEL         28 OCT-            60         80*       
--------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
* INCOMPLETE

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN/BLAKE