000 ABNT30 KNHC 011226 TWSAT MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... EIGHT TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING SEPTEMBER...TYING 2002 FOR THE RECORD OF THE MOST FORMATIONS DURING THE MONTH. THREE OF THE STORMS BECAME HURRICANES...BUT ONLY ONE OF THESE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES WAS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER... MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WERE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. AS A RESULT... THE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX...A MEASURE OF THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES...WAS BELOW AVERAGE AND WAS THE LOWEST TOTAL OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE 1997. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ALSO FORMED DURING THE MONTH. FELIX FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 24 AUGUST. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGAN SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ON 28 AUGUST...AND THE SYSTEM DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 31 AUGUST ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSED NEAR GRENADA AND THE GRENADINES EARLY ON 1 SEPTEMBER. FELIX MOVED WESTWARD AND INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED...AND FELIX BECAME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE LATE ON 2 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE HURRICANE WEAKENED TO CATEGORY 3 ON 3 SEPTEMBER AS IT UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. IT THEN RE-INTENSIFIED TO CATEGORY 5 STATUS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON 4 SEPTEMBER NEAR PUNTA GORDA NICARAGUA. FELIX WEAKENED QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL AND BECAME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON 5 SEPTEMBER. THE REMNANTS OF FELIX MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC WHERE THEY DISSIPATED ON 9 SEPTEMBER. MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT FELIX WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 101 DEATHS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH MORE THAN 100 OTHERS REPORTED MISSING AS OF THIS WRITING. THE HURRICANE CAUSED MAJOR DAMAGES IN THE LANDFALL AREA IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH NUMEROUS BUILDINGS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS. ADDITIONAL DAMAGES OCCURRED DUE TO INLAND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FELIX ALSO PRODUCED MINOR DAMAGES ON GRENADA...ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. GABRIELLE DEVELOPED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT FORMED ON 3 SEPTEMBER. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS LOW MOVED SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA. THE LOW BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE ON 7 SEPTEMBER AND BECAME A SUBTROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 8 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. AS GABRIELLE MOVED NORTHWESTWARD IT ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY. GABRIELLE STRENGTHENED EARLY ON 9 SEPTEMBER AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 MPH WHILE LOCATED JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW HOURS LATER...THE TROPICAL STORM MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE. AFTER LANDFALL GABRIELLE TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. GABRIELLE MOVED BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...EXITING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR KILL DEVIL HILLS EARLY ON 10 SEPTEMBER...AND THEN WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION A FEW HOURS LATER. THE NEXT DAY THE CIRCULATION BECAME ILL-DEFINED AND THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE WAS CONFINED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT...AND OVERALL THE IMPACTS FROM GABRIELLE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE MINIMAL. HUMBERTO FORMED FROM THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVED OFFSHORE OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON 5 SEPTEMBER. THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON 11 SEPTEMBER. ON THE MORNING OF 12 SEPTEMBER...CONVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASED NEAR THE TROUGH AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE DEPRESSION BECAME A TROPICAL STORM A FEW HOURS LATER AS IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. HUMBERTO TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EARLY ON 13 SEPTEMBER. THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND NEAR 0700 UTC THAT DAY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 MPH. HUMBERTO MOVED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER ON 13 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THE STORM SOON BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND DISSIPATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON 14 SEPTEMBER. THE MEDIA REPORTED ONE FATALITY DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO HUMBERTO AND PRELIMINARY DAMAGE FIGURES OF LESS THAN 500 MILLION DOLLARS. INGRID DEVELOPED FROM A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXITED THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 6 SEPTEMBER. AT THAT TIME...STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR WAS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND IT WAS NOT UNTIL 9 SEPTEMBER THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECAME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECAME PERSISTENT NEAR THE LOW ON 11 SEPTEMBER. BY THE MORNING OF 12 SEPTEMBER...WHEN THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE SYSTEM FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION MOVED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. DESPITE MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...THE CYCLONE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 14 SEPTEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 45 MPH ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER. THE SHEAR THEN INCREASED AND INGRID WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 15 SEPTEMBER. THE STRONG SHEAR PERSISTED AND INGRID DEGENERATED TO A BROAD REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 17 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 115 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORMED IN PART FROM A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECAME STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST ON 17 SEPTEMBER. ON 18 SEPTEMBER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMED OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WAS MOVING OVER OVER THE BAHAMAS. THESE FEATURES COMBINED TO PRODUCE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS LATER THAT DAY. THE SYSTEM MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF DURING 19-20 SEPTEMBER. ON 21 SEPTEMBER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...AND A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED THAT DAY ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM GAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER THAT DAY AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVED NORTHWESTWARD...BUT ITS MAXIMUM WINDS NEVER EXCEEDED 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION MADE LANDFALL LATE ON 21 SEPTEMBER NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA...AND IT DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS LATER. IMPACTS IN THE AREAS ALONG THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION WERE MINIMAL. JERRY FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES EARLY ON 23 SEPTEMBER. IT BEGAN AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SINCE THE CYCLONE WAS WELL-INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY LATER THAT DAY...BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH. JERRY ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS VERY EARLY ON 24 SEPTEMBER AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT IT NEVER GAINED ANY MORE STRENGTH. JERRY WEAKENED BACK TO A DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY AS IT ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND IT DISSIPATED NEAR THE END OF THAT DAY WHEN IT LOST ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION. BY THEN THE SYSTEM WAS ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. KAREN FORMED EARLY ON 25 SEPTEMBER OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA SEVERAL DAYS EARLIER. AFTER FORMATION...THE CYCLONE QUICKLY STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. KAREN MOVED MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND STRENGTHENED TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY ON 26 SEPTEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. A LITTLE LATER THAT DAY...HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED KAREN TO BEGIN WEAKENING. AS THE SHEAR INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. KAREN EVENTUALLY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION ON 29 SEPTEMBER AND DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENTLY...THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE SPREAD OUT OVER A LARGE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LORENZO FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 25 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION MEANDERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT DAY...BUT ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED ON 27 SEPTEMBER...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN. LORENZO CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVED WESTWARD...BECOMING A HURRICANE VERY EARLY ON 28 SEPTEMBER. LORENZO'S PEAK WINDS REACHED 80 MPH BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL WITH 75 MPH WINDS EARLY ON 28 SEPTEMBER SOUTH OF TUXPAN. LORENZO WEAKENED RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY. MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT THREE PERSONS WERE KILLED IN A MUD SLIDE IN THE STATE OF PUEBLA...AND THAT THERE WAS ROOF DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES IN THE TOWN OF NAUTLA. MELISSA FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT LEFT THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 26 SEPTEMBER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED THE NEXT DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW ABRUPTLY INCREASED EARLY ON 28 SEPTEMBER...AND THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY WHILE INCHING WESTWARD...AND IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 29 SEPTEMBER. AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 MPH LATE THAT DAY...THE STORM WEAKENED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHILE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT AGAIN BECAME A DEPRESSION EARLY ON 30 SEPTEMBER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN BECAME INTERMITTENT...AND LATER THAT DAY THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SUMMARY TABLE NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE MPH $MILLION --------------------------------------------------------------- H FELIX 31 AUG - 5 SEP 165 101 TS GABRIELLE 8-11 SEPTEMBER 50 H HUMBERTO 12-14 SEPTEMBER 85 1 500 TS INGRID 12-17 SEPTEMBER 45 TD TEN 21-22 SEPTEMBER 35 TS JERRY 23-24 SEPTEMBER 40 TS KAREN 25-29 SEPTEMBER 70 H LORENZO 25-28 SEPTEMBER 80 3 TS MELISSA 28-30 SEPTEMBER 45 -------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC) * UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA/BROWN/BLAKE/RHOME/KNABB/FRANKLIN/PASCH 000 ABNT30 KNHC 011226 TWSAT MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... EIGHT TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING SEPTEMBER...TYING 2002 FOR THE RECORD OF THE MOST FORMATIONS DURING THE MONTH. THREE OF THE STORMS BECAME HURRICANES...BUT ONLY ONE OF THESE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES WAS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER... MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WERE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. AS A RESULT... THE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX...A MEASURE OF THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES...WAS BELOW AVERAGE AND WAS THE LOWEST TOTAL OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE 1997. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ALSO FORMED DURING THE MONTH. FELIX FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 24 AUGUST. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGAN SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ON 28 AUGUST...AND THE SYSTEM DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 31 AUGUST ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSED NEAR GRENADA AND THE GRENADINES EARLY ON 1 SEPTEMBER. FELIX MOVED WESTWARD AND INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED...AND FELIX BECAME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE LATE ON 2 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE HURRICANE WEAKENED TO CATEGORY 3 ON 3 SEPTEMBER AS IT UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. IT THEN RE-INTENSIFIED TO CATEGORY 5 STATUS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON 4 SEPTEMBER NEAR PUNTA GORDA NICARAGUA. FELIX WEAKENED QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL AND BECAME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON 5 SEPTEMBER. THE REMNANTS OF FELIX MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC WHERE THEY DISSIPATED ON 9 SEPTEMBER. MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT FELIX WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 101 DEATHS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH MORE THAN 100 OTHERS REPORTED MISSING AS OF THIS WRITING. THE HURRICANE CAUSED MAJOR DAMAGES IN THE LANDFALL AREA IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH NUMEROUS BUILDINGS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS. ADDITIONAL DAMAGES OCCURRED DUE TO INLAND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FELIX ALSO PRODUCED MINOR DAMAGES ON GRENADA...ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. GABRIELLE DEVELOPED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT FORMED ON 3 SEPTEMBER. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS LOW MOVED SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA. THE LOW BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE ON 7 SEPTEMBER AND BECAME A SUBTROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 8 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. AS GABRIELLE MOVED NORTHWESTWARD IT ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY. GABRIELLE STRENGTHENED EARLY ON 9 SEPTEMBER AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 MPH WHILE LOCATED JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW HOURS LATER...THE TROPICAL STORM MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE. AFTER LANDFALL GABRIELLE TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. GABRIELLE MOVED BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...EXITING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR KILL DEVIL HILLS EARLY ON 10 SEPTEMBER...AND THEN WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION A FEW HOURS LATER. THE NEXT DAY THE CIRCULATION BECAME ILL-DEFINED AND THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE WAS CONFINED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT...AND OVERALL THE IMPACTS FROM GABRIELLE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE MINIMAL. HUMBERTO FORMED FROM THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVED OFFSHORE OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON 5 SEPTEMBER. THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON 11 SEPTEMBER. ON THE MORNING OF 12 SEPTEMBER...CONVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASED NEAR THE TROUGH AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE DEPRESSION BECAME A TROPICAL STORM A FEW HOURS LATER AS IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. HUMBERTO TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EARLY ON 13 SEPTEMBER. THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND NEAR 0700 UTC THAT DAY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 MPH. HUMBERTO MOVED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER ON 13 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THE STORM SOON BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND DISSIPATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON 14 SEPTEMBER. THE MEDIA REPORTED ONE FATALITY DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO HUMBERTO AND PRELIMINARY DAMAGE FIGURES OF LESS THAN 500 MILLION DOLLARS. INGRID DEVELOPED FROM A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXITED THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 6 SEPTEMBER. AT THAT TIME...STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR WAS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND IT WAS NOT UNTIL 9 SEPTEMBER THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECAME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECAME PERSISTENT NEAR THE LOW ON 11 SEPTEMBER. BY THE MORNING OF 12 SEPTEMBER...WHEN THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE SYSTEM FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION MOVED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. DESPITE MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...THE CYCLONE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 14 SEPTEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 45 MPH ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER. THE SHEAR THEN INCREASED AND INGRID WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 15 SEPTEMBER. THE STRONG SHEAR PERSISTED AND INGRID DEGENERATED TO A BROAD REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 17 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 115 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORMED IN PART FROM A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECAME STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST ON 17 SEPTEMBER. ON 18 SEPTEMBER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMED OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WAS MOVING OVER OVER THE BAHAMAS. THESE FEATURES COMBINED TO PRODUCE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS LATER THAT DAY. THE SYSTEM MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF DURING 19-20 SEPTEMBER. ON 21 SEPTEMBER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...AND A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED THAT DAY ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM GAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER THAT DAY AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVED NORTHWESTWARD...BUT ITS MAXIMUM WINDS NEVER EXCEEDED 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION MADE LANDFALL LATE ON 21 SEPTEMBER NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA...AND IT DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS LATER. IMPACTS IN THE AREAS ALONG THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION WERE MINIMAL. JERRY FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES EARLY ON 23 SEPTEMBER. IT BEGAN AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SINCE THE CYCLONE WAS WELL-INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY LATER THAT DAY...BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH. JERRY ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS VERY EARLY ON 24 SEPTEMBER AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT IT NEVER GAINED ANY MORE STRENGTH. JERRY WEAKENED BACK TO A DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY AS IT ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND IT DISSIPATED NEAR THE END OF THAT DAY WHEN IT LOST ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION. BY THEN THE SYSTEM WAS ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. KAREN FORMED EARLY ON 25 SEPTEMBER OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA SEVERAL DAYS EARLIER. AFTER FORMATION...THE CYCLONE QUICKLY STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. KAREN MOVED MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND STRENGTHENED TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY ON 26 SEPTEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. A LITTLE LATER THAT DAY...HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED KAREN TO BEGIN WEAKENING. AS THE SHEAR INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. KAREN EVENTUALLY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION ON 29 SEPTEMBER AND DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENTLY...THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE SPREAD OUT OVER A LARGE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LORENZO FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 25 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION MEANDERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT DAY...BUT ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED ON 27 SEPTEMBER...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN. LORENZO CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVED WESTWARD...BECOMING A HURRICANE VERY EARLY ON 28 SEPTEMBER. LORENZO'S PEAK WINDS REACHED 80 MPH BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL WITH 75 MPH WINDS EARLY ON 28 SEPTEMBER SOUTH OF TUXPAN. LORENZO WEAKENED RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY. MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT THREE PERSONS WERE KILLED IN A MUD SLIDE IN THE STATE OF PUEBLA...AND THAT THERE WAS ROOF DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES IN THE TOWN OF NAUTLA. MELISSA FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT LEFT THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 26 SEPTEMBER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED THE NEXT DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW ABRUPTLY INCREASED EARLY ON 28 SEPTEMBER...AND THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY WHILE INCHING WESTWARD...AND IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 29 SEPTEMBER. AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 MPH LATE THAT DAY...THE STORM WEAKENED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHILE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT AGAIN BECAME A DEPRESSION EARLY ON 30 SEPTEMBER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN BECAME INTERMITTENT...AND LATER THAT DAY THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SUMMARY TABLE NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE MPH $MILLION --------------------------------------------------------------- H FELIX 31 AUG - 5 SEP 165 101 TS GABRIELLE 8-11 SEPTEMBER 50 H HUMBERTO 12-14 SEPTEMBER 85 1 500 TS INGRID 12-17 SEPTEMBER 45 TD TEN 21-22 SEPTEMBER 35 TS JERRY 23-24 SEPTEMBER 40 TS KAREN 25-29 SEPTEMBER 70 H LORENZO 25-28 SEPTEMBER 80 3 TS MELISSA 28-30 SEPTEMBER 45 -------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC) * UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA/BROWN/BLAKE/RHOME/KNABB/FRANKLIN/PASCH