000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201727
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula. 

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated 
with two disturbances over the western portion of the East Pacific 
basin.  These systems are expected to merge tonight, and gradual 
development is anticipated after they merge.  A tropical depression 
will likely form during the next day or so while it moves generally 
westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then expected to strengthen 
as it moves across the central Pacific basin late this week and move 
near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week. 

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude 
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor 
this disturbance. Information on this system's development can also 
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific 
basin.  For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental 
conditions should support slow development thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend 
while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters, well 
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be 
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on 
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart