000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191747
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula. 

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low 
pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii has changed little 
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely 
to form during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast 
to meander slowly northward or northeastward during the next few 
days, before accelerating west-northwestward into the Central 
Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week. Information on this 
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather 
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well 
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 
This system has not become any better organized today. The 
disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the 
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or 
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation. 
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few 
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental 
conditions could become conducive for some slow development of this 
system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be 
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on 
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Nepaul